It's early, I know. I'm concerned, however, that there is no strong candidate in play to knock over a president who should be easy to unseat.
Mitt Romney - He's probably the most likely to take the nomination at this point. He will have to do a better job, however, of explaining to the base how Romneycare and Obamacare are so different. Because the base mostly thinks it's the same thing. I heard his speech on how it's state vs. federal, and that does work to a certain degree. But the truth of the matter is that Romneycare is a failure. And until Romney admits that and calls for it's undoing, there will be a core in the conservative base that will see him as "big government" for it.
Newt Gingrich - Everyone is uneasy with Newt, but few can probably articulate the reason. The reason is that he has become a "moderate" in conservative clothing. Newt wants to save the day by reaching across the aisle. That's a huge problem for the brighter in the base, because it's simple fact that reaching across the aisle is only a metaphor for compromising with the uncompromising Democrats. It only ever means that Republicans give ground on their principled stand because the Democrats refuse to budge. The base is disgusted by this and completely sick of it. It is only the tone-deaf DC insider who's been in Washington too long to remember why he went who thinks otherwise. Newt outed himself with his comments blasting Paul Ryan's financial plan, and that cat isn't going back in the bag.
Ron Paul - Ron Paul has some great positions... and no speaking ability, nor any real ability to connect with the majority of voters required to get elected. America elects speaking ability. In fact, 2008 proves that America is perfectly happy electing a teleprompter... as long as they get the words their itching ears want to hear. He also has some positions that, while principled, are simply unrealistic. Near-complete isolationism probably isn't going to work in the day in which we live. Walking away from Israel, well, BHO is trying and so far it's not working. Auditing the Federal Reserve with an eye toward abolishing it? I'm with you all the way on that one. I'm convinced that the purpose of the Federal Reserve is to steal the wealth of America and eventually destroy the nation as we know it. But to get any traction at all with this, it would take an electorate educated enough to know what you were talking about. And we don't have one of those. Half of our citizenry can't even reason clearly past the "Republicans are evil and want you to die" Alan Grayson talking point. Federal Reserve? Might was well be talking about water deposits on Mars.
Gary Johnson - We can argue about legalizing marijuana all day long, but it's not of primary importance at a time when the nation is heading for the giant iceberg, and it makes you look utterly un-serious as a candidate.
Herman Cain - I'd love to say I have a good read on Herman Cain. My gut tells me he's a flash in the pan. I don't think he could pull any votes on the left at all (no "black factor"), and I don't really know what independents would do with him. I love his no-nonsense attitude, so refreshing after years of nothing-but-nonsense from BHO. But I honestly am not yet convinced he could take more than 10% of the vote in a primary.
Tim Pawlenty - He caused a stir a week or so ago with a tweet that rightly nailed BHO to the wall... and then silence. Pawlenty's problem is exactly that... he's running silent and that's not going to work. Even on FNC you barely ever hear anything about or from him. Now, when he's interviewed or in a debate he sounds great, but he's got to get the fire started or he's going nowhere. Too many people have no idea who he is or what he stands for, and waiting for the debates to paint that picture will have him playing catch-up.
Sarah Palin - Ah, the brilliance of Sarah. I have no idea yet if she's actually running. But what I love is the page she's taken from the Reagan playbook. Remember David Carradine in the tv show "Kung Fu"? I was always fascinated by the fight scenes, because he never so much as broke a sweat. Instead, he used his opponents' own force against them and guided them into destroying themselves. Sarah Palin has figured out that she is so thoroughly antithetical to the mainstream media that she can easily manipulate them into being her free publicity outfit. After all, no matter what she does the message will be the same. They hate her, they will deride her till the day she rides off into the sunset and probably for quite some time after. She's too American for their sophisticated tastes. They're embarrassed by her. And she's playing it for all it's worth. Right now she's on a bus tour around the country with no stated purpose and it's making them crazy. I want to cheer! Anything that has the MSM's teeth grinding works for me! Apparently they're literally following the bus around to see where it goes because she has given them nothing. And that's exactly what they deserve after the savage treatment they gave her in the 2008 presidential campaign. I don't know if she's going to run for president and I realize many think she's unelectable... but so was Reagan. There is a part of me, and not a small one, that would love to see her elected president just to see the horror and patheticness of the left completely bare itself for all to see. (Addendum 0603@1521: Nice piece on exactly this from Empire Breitbart...)
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